Saturday, March 31, 2012

March 2012 - WARM & WET In The HKL


March 25, 2012
Early Green On Potter's Flats - Breaks Interstate Park
Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

The High Knob Landform

[ Whitewater rapids visible on the Russell Fork River above are 33 air miles NNE of the summit level of the High Knob Massif, and more than 3400 feet lower in elevation, as the river bends around Potter's Flats in majestic Breaks Interstate Park straddling the rugged Virginia-Kentucky border ].

Breaks Interstate Park is always one of the first places in far southwestern Virginia to "green up" each spring but even here, where elevations drop toward 800 feet upon entering Kentucky, spring emergence is running several weeks ahead of schedule following record March warmth. 

March 25, 2012
Breaks Interstate Park ( Dickenson County )
White Trillium ( Trillium grandiflorum ) In Bloom 
Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

With March temperatures being analogous to what would typically be observed during late April and early May, it is little wonder that vegetation began to wake up early from winter slumber ( * ).

*This refers to MEAN temperatures for the month of March with individual days having record warmth reaching summer levels.


Climate Statistics
For March 2012

( Lower elevations of Russell Fork Basin )
Clintwood 1 W - Elevation 1560 feet
Average Daily MAX: 68.4 degrees
Average Daily MIN: 37.4 degrees
MEAN: 52.9 degrees
Highest Temperature: 84 degrees
Lowest Temperature: 20 degrees
Total Precipitation: 4.54"
Total Snowfall: 1.8"

( Northern base of High Knob Massif )
City of Norton - Elevation 2141 feet
Average Daily MAX: 64.3 degrees
Average Daily MIN: 36.5 degrees
MEAN: 50.4 degrees
Highest Temperature: 80 degrees
Lowest Temperature: 17 degrees
Total Precipitation: 8.32"
Total Snowfall: 4.2"

( Long Ridge of Tennessee Valley Divide )
Nora 4 SSE - Elevation 2650 feet
Average Daily MAX: 62.8 degrees
Average Daily MIN: 43.0 degrees
MEAN: 52.9 degrees
Highest Temperature: 78 degrees
Lowest Temperature: 21 degrees
Total Precipitation: 6.19"
Total Snowfall: 3.0"

( Northern Edge of The Cedars )
Jonesville 3.1 WSW - Elevation 1422 feet
Average Daily MAX: 69.3 degrees
Average Daily MIN: 42.1 degrees
MEAN: 55.7 degrees
Total Precipitation: 7.80"
Total Snowfall: Trace

[ In the Russell Fork Basin note that Clintwood and Nora 4 SSE had the exact same MEAN temperature for March despite having radically different regimes, with much cooler days on Long Ridge and much cooler nights in Clintwood.  In fact, downsloping SW winds in the mean allowed Clintwood to have some of the warmest maximums in southwest Virginia during March with 6 days at or above 80 degrees ( followed by rapid nocturnal temp drops ) ].

In the High Knob highcountry, the average March temps varied from mid-upper 50s by day at highest elevations to low-mid 30s at night in colder mountain valleys ( northern exposed, lofty valleys above 2500 to 3000 feet elevation tending to be coldest in the mean ).

March was wet with a general 7.00" to 9.00" of total precipitation in the High Knob Massif area, including 3" to 5" of snow ( much below average snow ).

Breaks Interstate Park - March 25, 2012
Colors of Spring Come Early To Breaks Gorge
Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

Mean SSW-WSW winds during March generated significant lifting over the High Knob Massif to aid rainfall totals across and upstream of its sprawling highcountry, with orographic & convective modes operating together and at different times to keep the wet trend of the past 13-months going.

City of Norton
13-Month Precipitation Totals
Observers: Tommy Roberts & Staff of Norton WP
( March 2011 - March 2012 )

2011
March: 8.38"
April: 8.66"
May: 5.13"
June: 6.40"
July: 8.43"
August: 5.55"
September: 9.21"
October: 5.04"
November: 8.08"
December: 5.63"

2012
January: 4.11"
February: 5.77"
March: 7.87"

2012 Total: 17.75"

12-Month Total: 79.88"

13-Month Total: 88.26" ( * )

*The most precipitation observed within any city or town
in Virginia during this 13-Month period.

March 25, 2012
Virginia Pine ( Pinus virginiana ) - Breaks Interstate Park
Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.


March Ends With Beauty
Along The Tennessee Valley Divide
( Southern Dickenson County )

March 31, 2012 at 5:45 PM
Rainbow Thunderbolt Over Hazel Mountain
Photograph by Wayne Riner - © All Rights Reserved.

Wayne Riner's Photograph Thoughts...
"Above the dark valley a rainbow appeared. It looks as if it is a thunderbolt jumping from a white cloud against a blue sky."

Truly unusual and magnificent!

March 31, 2012 at 5:46 PM
Close-Up View of Rainbow Thunderbolt
Photograph by Wayne Riner - © All Rights Reserved.

March 31, 2012 at 6:09 PM
Long Ridge of the Tennessee Valley Divide
My Mother's Cherry Tree - Majesty of Spring
Photograph by Wayne Riner - © All Rights Reserved.

Wayne Riner's Photograph Thoughts...
"When we first built our house, my mother brought me a sprout from a cherry tree.  It has provided us well."

March 31, 2012 at 6:11 PM
Lowering Sun Cast's Shadow of House On Orchard
Photograph by Wayne Riner - © All Rights Reserved.

A highland orchard in early bloom at 2650 feet elevation.  With hopes and prayers may it produce a bounty, as all will be needed to help it survive more "mountain winters" ahead!

March 31, 2012 at 6:50 PM
Towering Cumulonimbus Near Sunset - Long Ridge
Photograph by Wayne Riner - © All Rights Reserved.

What a way to end the warmest
March on record!

Sunday, March 18, 2012

Wetness In The High Knob Landform


March 5, 2012 at 9:53 AM
Heavy Snow In High Chaparral of High Knob Massif
Photograph by Darlene Fields - © All Rights Reserved.


With record warmth now possible it is almost hard to believe that snow was on the ground less than two weeks ago!

Elevation 3300 feet
Blanket of Snow In High Chaparral - March 5, 2012
Photograph by Darlene Fields - © All Rights Reserved. 

A general 3" to 5" of snow depth covered the mountain landscape from the town of Wise and Tennessee Valley Divide into the City of Norton and High Knob Massif in wake of severe storms with drenching rains on March 2.


March 5, 2012
Measuring Snow In The High Knob Highcountry
Photograph by Darlene Fields - © All Rights Reserved.  

Although way less than the past several winters, this fall of snow pushed 2011-12 seasonal totals into the range of 3 to 6 feet from the town of Wise and City of Norton into the main crest zone of the High Knob Massif ( 38.9" at the Norton Water Plant ).

[ The 6 feet of snowfall for 2011-12 to date being amid highest elevations in the High Knob Massif where snow depths of 1" or more were on the ground for 48 days in lofty High Knob Lake Basin ( across northern slopes above 3400 feet ) ].

January-February 2012 were the snowiest with a general 30-50" of snowfall above 3000 feet in the High Knob Massif.

Specific Seasonal Snowfall Totals
( October 1, 2011 to March 6, 2012 )

Elevation 1560 feet
Clintwood 1 W: 25.9"

Elevation 2650 feet
Nora 4 SSE: 35.8"

Elevation 2549 feet
Wise 3 E: 36.4"

Elevation 2342 feet
Norton Water Plant: 38.9"

Elevation 3200-3300 feet
High Chaparral-Robinson Knob: 45-50"

Elevation 4189 feet
*Eagle Knob of High Knob Massif: 71.0"

*Max winter depths reached 1-2 feet, with 3-5 foot drifts, above 3000 feet in the High Knob Massif during the February 19, 2012 winter storm.


Saskatchewan Screamer
Slide Show of Conditions
In Wise During March 4-6, 2012

11:59 PM - March 4, 2012
University of Virginia's College In Wise

12:51 AM - March 5, 2012
University of Virginia's College In Wise 

2:43 AM - March 5, 2012
University of Virginia's College In Wise 

The main snowband associated with this fast moving clipper system actually passed well north of southwestern Virginia, with snow depths locally arising mostly due to NW upslope flow ( again shutting out the Tri-Cities to Knoxville corridor of the Great Valley where 2011-12 winter snowfall totals have to date only reached 0.1" to 1.2" ).

8:50 AM - March 5, 2012
University of Virginia's College In Wise 

9:51 AM - March 5, 2012
University of Virginia's College In Wise 

10:07 AM - March 5, 2012
University of Virginia's College In Wise 

10:14 AM - March 5, 2012
University of Virginia's College In Wise 

10:26 AM - March 5, 2012
University of Virginia's College In Wise 

11:23 AM - March 5, 2012
University of Virginia's College In Wise 

12:11 PM - March 5, 2012
University of Virginia's College In Wise 

12:27 PM - March 5, 2012
University of Virginia's College In Wise 

12:37 PM - March 5, 2012
University of Virginia's College In Wise 

12:43 PM - March 5, 2012
University of Virginia's College In Wise 

12:56 PM - March 5, 2012
University of Virginia's College In Wise 

1:19 PM - March 5, 2012
University of Virginia's College In Wise 

12:46 AM - March 6, 2012
University of Virginia's College In Wise 

[ Low pressure troughs forming lee of the Canadian Rockies often give birth to clipper systems during winter which race southeast into the Appalachians and Great Lakes.  Sometimes these systems do not fully develop until they get into Saskatchewan Province, instead of Alberta, and are called "Saskatchewan Screamers" ].


Dawn of Spring 2012
Wet Times In High Knob Landform

March 3, 2012 at 9:15 AM
Long Ridge of the Tennessee Valley Divide
Easter Daffodils Bloom Early During 2012
Photograph by Wayne Riner - © All Rights Reserved. 

Wayne Riner Thoughts...
"After all they are just plain daffodils, but these are located in a ditch beside the road near an old home place where my grandmother was born and raised.  Some plain things are special."

And we thank Wayne for sharing!

Meteorological Spring 2012 has started very wet with a general 6.00" to 8.00"+ of precipitation having already fallen across the High Knob Massif area in March, with Andrew Greear reporting 7.08" in the City of Norton's official rain gage at Norton Water Plant during March 1-18 ( 16.96" in 2012 ).

City of Norton
March 1-18: 6.63"
Total Past 29-days: 10.39"
( February 19-March 18 )

This follows a wet 12-month period with a general 80.00" to 90.00" in the High Knob Massif area during March 2011-February 2012.

12-Month Precipitation Totals
March 2011 to February 2012
( Totals do not include March 2012 )

City of Norton: 80.39"
( Northern base of High Knob Massif )

Big Cherry Dam: 81.82" ( M )
( 6.5 air miles SSW of Norton in High Knob Massif )

Robinson Knob: 84.76" ( M )
( 5.5 air miles SE of Norton in High Knob Massif )

( M ) - Indicates missing moisture in evaporation between hand-measurements and physical gage losses in snowfall ( especially at Big Cherry Dam ).  Around 0.80" of water content was lost at Big Cherry Dam during the February 19 snow alone, which over-filled the rain gage ( 4"-diameter NWS type ).


March 5, 2012 at 8:12 AM
Long Ridge of the Tennessee Valley Divide
Visibility Fades In Snow & Blowing Snow
Photograph by Wayne Riner - © All Rights Reserved.


Big Cherry Dam of High Knob Massif
Monthly Precipitation Totals
Elevation 3120 feet
( Observers: Gary Hampton & Staff )

2011
March: 9.85"
April: 10.08"
May: 5.38"
June: 6.16"
July: 7.18"
August: 4.94"
September: 7.28"
October: 5.05"
November: 8.67"
December: 6.62"

2012
January: 4.70"
February: 5.91"

2011 Total: 80.25" ( M )

Recent 12-Month Total: 81.82" ( M )
( Does not include March 2012 )

40-Month Total: 250.65" ( M )

40-Month Mean Monthly Precip: 6.27"

Mean Per 12-Month Periods: 75.24" ( M )

( M ) - Indicates missing moisture in evaporation between hand-measurements and physical gage loss in snow with approximately 3.50" of estimated rain gage loss per year ( for example, around 0.80" of loss in snowfall during February 19, 2012 alone ).

The 6.27" monthly mean for 40 consecutive months is the greatest ever observed in Virginia, despite missing data, over such a long period of time ( 6.56" per month when including estimated rain gage losses on evaporation & snow overflow ).

*Note the use of the term "long period of time" is relative since even a standard 30-year data period is but a flicker in the BIG picture.  While data recording in the High Knob Massif area only started in the 1980s, these trends fit the geomorphology of the High Knob Landform and biodiversity that is being documented across this landscape ( terrestrial & subterranean ).

[ Big Cherry Dam is located 8.0 air miles WSW of Robinson Knob in the main crest zone of the High Knob Massif ( the communities of High Chaparral & Robinson Knob rest at the eastern base of the main crest zone near the Wise-Scott border in Wise County, VA ) ].

March 5, 2012 at 8:09 AM
Long Ridge of the Tennessee Valley Divide
Accumulating In the Lee - Wind Driven Snow
Photograph by Wayne Riner - © All Rights Reserved. 


Robinson Knob of High Knob Massif
Monthly Precipitation Totals
Elevation 3240 feet
( Observers: Otis & Nancy Ward )

2011
March 9.87"
April: 8.58"
May: 4.49"
June: 6.48"
July: 12.25"
August: 4.21"
September: 7.96"
October: 4.99"
November: 10.38"
December: 5.40"

2012
January: 4.19"
February: 5.96"

2011 Total: 81.14" ( M )

Recent 12-Month Total: 84.76" ( M )
( Does not include March 2012 )

While this pattern has been recently wet, it is longer term wetness of the High Knob Massif area that is rewriting the known climatology of Virginia.




Meteorological Winter
Climate Statistics For 2011-12
( December 2011 to February 2012 )

February 12, 2012
Snow Drifts In High Knob Massif Crest Zone
Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

The following will recap the meteorological winter season from December 2011 through February 2012.


December 2011

Camp Bethel In Wise - Evening of December 7, 2011
Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved. 

( Russell Fork Basin )
Clintwood 1 W – Elevation 1560 feet
Average Daily MAX: 49.9 degrees
Average Daily MIN: 27.9 degrees
MEAN: 38.9 degrees
Highest Temperature: 66 degrees
Lowest Temperature: 16 degrees
Total Precipitation: 4.17"
Total Snowfall: 1.2"

( Northern base High Knob Massif )
City of Norton – Elevation 2141 feet
Average Daily MAX: 47.1 degrees
Average Daily MIN: 25.8 degrees
MEAN: 36.4 degrees
Highest Temperature: 62 degrees
Lowest Temperature: 13 degrees
Total Precipitation: 5.63"
Total Snowfall: 4.5"

( Long Ridge of Sandy Ridge )
Nora 4 SSE – Elevation 2650 feet
Average Daily MAX: 46.0 degrees
Average Daily MIN: 31.4 degrees
MEAN: 38.7 degrees
Highest Temperature: 61 degrees
Lowest Temperature: 19 degrees
Total Precipitation: 4.39"
Total Snowfall: 6.2"

( Northern Edge of The Cedars )
Jonesville 3.1 WSW - Elevation 1422 feet
Average Daily MAX: 52.6 degrees
Average Daily MIN: 29.6 degrees
MEAN: 41.1 degrees
Highest Temperature: 68 degrees
Lowest Temperature: 14 degrees
Total Precipitation: 4.77"
Total Snowfall: Trace


January 2012

January 2, 2012 
Deepening Between Whiteouts - High Knob Massif
Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

Clintwood 1 W - Elevation 1560 feet
Average Daily MAX: 46.8 degrees
Average Daily MIN: 23.9 degrees
MEAN: 35.4 degrees
Highest Temperature: 62 degrees
Lowest Temperature: 8 degrees
Total Precipitation: 2.63"
Total Snowfall: 10.1"
Days of 1" or more depth: 8

City of Norton - Elevation 2141 feet
Average Daily MAX: 43.4 degrees
Average Daily MIN: 22.4 degrees
MEAN: 32.9 degrees
Highest Temperature: 59 degrees
Lowest Temperature: 7 degrees
Total Precipitation: 4.11"
Total Snowfall: 11.7"
Days of 1" or more depth: 8

Nora 4 SSE - Elevation 2650 feet
Average Daily MAX: 43.0 degrees
Average Daily MIN: 26.7 degrees
MEAN: 34.8 degrees
Highest Temperature: 60 degrees
Lowest Temperature: 10 degrees
Total Precipitation: 2.40"
Total Snowfall: 10.2"
Days of 1" or more depth: 6

Jonesville 3.1 WSW - Elevation 1422 feet
Average Daily MAX: 49.7 degrees
Average Daily MIN: 26.0 degrees
MEAN: 37.8 degrees
Highest Temperature: 64 degrees
Lowest Temperature: 9 degrees
Total Precipitation: 4.46"
Total Snowfall: 1.7"


February 2012

February 19, 2012
Lost In Snow & Fog - Heavy Snow Begins on Long Ridge
Photograph by Wayne Riner - © All Rights Reserved.

Clintwood 1 W - Elevation 1560 feet
Average Daily MAX: 49.1 degrees
Average Daily MIN: 26.5 degrees
MEAN: 37.8 degrees
Highest Temperature: 67 degrees
Lowest Temperature: 13 degrees
Total Precipitation: 4.10"
Total Snowfall: 12.7"

City of Norton - Elevation 2141 feet
Average Daily MAX: 46.6 degrees
Average Daily MIN: 24.7 degrees
MEAN: 35.6 degrees
Highest Temperature: 65 degrees
Lowest Temperature: 9 degrees
Total Precipitation: 5.77"
Total Snowfall: 16.2"

Nora 4 SSE - Elevation 2650 feet
Average Daily MAX: 45.2 degrees
Average Daily MIN: 28.9 degrees
MEAN: 37.0 degrees
Highest Temperature: 61 degrees
Lowest Temperature: 7 degrees
Total Precipitation: 4.48"
Total Snowfall: 14.2"

Jonesville 3.1 WSW - Elevation 1422 feet
Average Daily MAX: 52.3 degrees
Average Daily MIN: 29.3 degrees
MEAN: 40.8 degrees
Highest Temperature: 73 degrees
Lowest Temperature: 12 degrees
Total Precipitation: 5.63"
Total Snowfall: 2.8"


Summary of Statistics 
December 2011-February 2012

January 14, 2012
RIME Coated Crest Zone - High Knob Massif
Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

Clintwood 1 W - Elevation 1560 feet
Average Daily MAX: 48.6 degrees
Average Daily MIN: 26.1 degrees
MEAN Winter Temperature: 37.4 degrees
Highest Temperature: 67 degrees
Lowest Temperature: 8 degrees
Total Precipitation: 10.90"
Total Snowfall: 24.0"

City of Norton - Elevation 2141 feet
Average Daily MAX: 45.7 degrees
Average Daily MIN: 24.3 degrees
MEAN Winter Temperature: 35.0 degrees
Highest Temperature: 65 degrees
Lowest Temperature: 7 degrees
Total Precipitation: 15.51"
Total Snowfall: 32.4"

Nora 4 SSE - Elevation 2650 feet
Average Daily MAX: 44.7 degrees
Average Daily MIN: 29.0 degrees
MEAN Winter Temperature: 36.8 degrees
Highest Temperature: 61 degrees
Lowest Temperature: 7 degrees
Total Precipitation: 11.27"
Total Snowfall: 30.6"

Jonesville 3.1 WSW - Elevation 1422 feet
Average Daily MAX: 51.5 degrees
Average Daily MIN: 28.3 degrees
MEAN Winter Temperature: 39.9 degrees
Highest Temperature: 73 degrees
Lowest Temperature: 9 degrees
Total Precipitation: 14.86"
Total Snowfall: 4.5"


In the High Knob highcountry, mean winter temperatures varied from upper 30s to lower 40s by day at the higher elevations to lower-mid 20s at night to generate mean winter temps in the 30 to 35 degree range ( 7 to 10 degrees above last winter ).

Total precip topped 18.00" in wetter portions of the massif as noted by the 17.23" caught in the NWS rain gage at Big Cherry Dam ( 0.80" lost on just the February 19 snow to imply well over 18.00" for the entire December-February period ).


March 2012
Living Up To Notorious Nature

March 15, 2012
Northern Lee County, Virginia
Big Pile of Hail In Front of Door
Photograph by Rodney Parsons - © All Rights Reserved. 

March 2012 has certainly lived up to the infamous, notorious nature of this fickle month of transition with essentially everything but the kitchen sink thrown at the mountain region so far ( and its not over yet! ).

Record warmth being the most recent twist with afternoon maximums hitting mid-upper 70s in the Norton-Wise area on March 19 ( 75 degrees in 1982 being the official record in Wise ).

[ Extreme temperatures varying from mid-upper 60s in cooler portions of the High Knob Massif to low-mid 80s in locations below 1600 feet subjected to downsloping on SSE-SW winds ].

The highest March temperatures ever observed at the elevation of Wise reached 80 degrees in March 1986 and March 2007 ( since recording began in 1955 ).

Current warmth is in stark contrast to bitter single digits and 10s felt above snow cover in morning hours of March 6 ( the only snowfall of the month, as previously highlighted ).

Mountain valley temperatures were in the mid-upper 40s at 2 AM on March 20 and dropping, with cold air drainage downward from still relatively dry air around 850 MB supporting large temp declines in valleys above 1500-2000 feet ( *the coolest readings destined for valleys above 2500-3000 feet in elevation ).

*Wildly mild for this time of year when minimums can still go sub-zero, with -1 degree F below zero being the record low in Wise for March 21, 1965 ( -15 degrees F below zero being the record in Burkes Garden for March 21, 1914 ).


Climate Statistics
For March 1-15, 2012
( Ending During AM of March 15 )

Clintwood 1 W - Elevation 1560 feet
Average Daily MAX: 60.7 degrees
Average Daily MIN: 30.9 degrees
March 1-15 MEAN: 45.8 degrees
Total Precipitation: 3.45"
Total Snowfall: 1.8"

City of Norton - Elevation 2141 feet
Average Daily MAX: 57.1 degrees
Average Daily MIN: 29.8 degrees
March 1-15 MEAN: 43.4 degrees
Total Precipitation: 5.12"
Total Snowfall: 4.2"

Nora 4 SSE - Elevation 2650 feet
Average Daily MAX: 55.5 degrees
Average Daily MIN: 35.8 degrees
March 1-15 MEAN: 45.6 degrees
Total Precipitation: 3.90"
Total Snowfall: 3.0"

Conditions trended milder and even wetter since March 15 ( AM ) with only a current break in rains that is expected to give way to more drenching showers & storms ( especially by late week & next week ).

Doppler Estimated 3-Day Rainfall Totals for March 15-18, 2012

Due to extensive hail, actual rainfall totals in most places were about one-half of what Doppler radar estimated ( amounts were still locally excessive during March 15-18 ).

[ Note the extensive coverage of heavy rain and storms across the High Knob Landform from the Powell Mountain Block ( along the borders of Wise, Scott, and Lee counties ) of the High Knob Massif southwest to the I-75 corridor in northern Tennessee.

Major flash flooding occurred to the north in Lincoln, Logan, and Mingo counties of southwestern West Virginia ].

Thursday, March 8, 2012

Major Severe Outbreak of Early March 2012


In Wake of Morgan County EF-3 Tornado
Aerial Photograph Of West Liberty, Kentucky

West Liberty, Ky., was one of many communities devastated by the greatest tornadoes ever documented in modern times in the foothills and western slopes of the Appalachians ( * ).

*Since 1950 when the best USA tornado record keeping started
( not including tornadoes along and north of the Ohio River or west of the Kentucky foothills ).

[ Since tornado fatality record keeping began in Virginia, during 1916, the deadliest twister to ever strike the Commonwealth remains the monster funnel which devastated Rye Cove in Scott County on May 2, 1929 ( 13 killed ) ].

March 2, 2012 Tornado Outbreak
Multi-Radar & Sensor Indicated Rotational Signatures
 Image Courtesy of National Severe Storms Laboratory

A swarm of rotating supercell thunderstorms tore across the Ohio & Tennessee valleys into western slopes of the Appalachian Mountains during March 2, 2012 ( marking the second outbreak in 3 days ).

March 4, 2008
Warm Sector Setting Just Before Big Stone Gap EF-1

The Big Stone Gap EF-1 tornado represents the more typical type found in the Appalachians, with rapid spin up of often rain-wrapped funnels possessing short damage tracks.

March 2, 2012
West Liberty, Ky., Tornado Video
By lKevinadkins West Liberty EF-3 Tornado

The Great Plains-like nature of tornadoes that ripped a gash into eastern Kentucky foothill terrain was in part driven by extreme shear which tilted the supercells in such a way to keep their spinning updrafts separated from downdrafts.

[ This updaft-downdraft separation allowed the supercells to be long-lived, with amazing on ground tornado tracks, by keeping low energy downdraft air away from their inflow.  It also allowed the occasionally 1 mile WIDE funnels to be clearly visible and isolated from falling rain and hail ( like many on the Plains ) ].

( Updated But Still Preliminary )
Eastern Kentucky Tornado Tracks - March 2, 2012
Courtesy of the Jackson, Ky., NWS Forecast Office

The West Liberty tornado was on the ground for an incredible 86 miles, with an adjacent EF-3 that traveled 49 miles along a path which devastated the Salyersville community in Magoffin County.

[ A deadly EF-4 rated tornado was also on the ground for 49 miles across southern Indiana, as surveyed by the Louisville, Ky., NWS Forecast Office ].

( Updated: March 23, 2012 )
The Kentucky death toll from this March 2 tornado outbreak reached 24 with loss of a Laurel County woman ( 37-year old Mary A. Pruitt ) on March 23, according to the Lexington Herald-Leader.

March 2, 2012
Tornado Track In Lee & Claiborne Counties

Two confirmed tornadoes impacted rolling, open expanses of the Powell River Valley, amid southwest portions of the High Knob Landform, with EF-1 and EF-2 rated areas of damage surveyed in southern Lee County and northern Claiborne County along the VA-TN stateline.

[ Note that photographs submitted by Melissa Mullins revealed another area of concentrated damage in the Jonesville area of
Lee County ].

( Updated - March 9, 2012 )
An EF-1 tornado was found to have caused the damage reported by Melissa Mullins some 3 miles SE of Jonesville, in Lee County, to mark the third official tornado to have occurred amid this episode in the High Knob Landform & Cumberland Block.

March 2, 2012
Tornado Track SE of Jonesville In Lee County


( Specific Atmospheric Details )
Severe Thunderstorm Outbreak
of March 2, 2012

This severe weather outbreak was predicted well in advance of the first thunderstorms, with the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Ok., issuing a rare moderate risk across a large portion of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.

[ Rare for early March in this section of the USA where cold weather and snow are more likely ( much of the moderate risk region was later upgraded to a HIGH RISK prior to the main event in afternoon hours of March 2 ) ]. 

1:45 AM - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar-Precipitable Water-SPC Risk Regions

A dry air mass covered much of the moderate risk region of the Storm Prediction Center ( SPC ) at 1:45 AM March 2, with significant temperature drops generated in mountain valleys.

Most Unstalbe CAPE at 7:00 AM - March 2, 2012

Temperatures early on March 2 were below freezing in the City of Norton and in Clintwood, such that formation of active storms after sunrise took many by surprise!

However, in fact, supercell thunderstorms are actually relatively common in elevated settings when there is significant upstream CAPE and streamwise vorticity amid a warm air advection and moisture transport regime.

[ Note on the above graphic that MUCAPE ( Most Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy ) values of 1000-2000 J/kg were upstream of southwestern Virginia amid a developing warm air advection and moisture transport pattern ( below ) ].

Most Unstalbe CAPE at 9:00 AM - March 2, 2012

[ Note on the above graphic that the Lifted Parcel Level ( LPL ) was more than 1000 meters across Wise, Scott, and Lee counties to indicate that CAPE was elevated in nature above a chilly, stable boundary layer above which supercell development began ].

9:00 AM - March 2, 2012
850 MB Moisture Transport & Vector Magnitudes

Elevated convection developing above decoupled boundary layers can be benign if upstream CAPE and streamwise vorticity are weak. One of the best parameters to help determine this is the Effective Storm Relative Helicity ( ESRH ), not shown for this hour, which tends to confine storm relative helicity to that portion of the atmosphere in which air parcels are buoyant and not strongly capped.

Storm Prediction Center PDF
Richard Thompson, Roger Edwards, Corey Mead

9:00 AM - March 2, 2012
Mean Sea Level Pressure & Doppler Composite

[ An already strong surface low over Missouri at 1400z was tightening the regional pressure gradient as it began lifting northeast toward Lake Huron with rapid deepening by 1200z March 3 ( i.e., core pressure drops in the bombogenesis realm ) ].

While showers with local downpours developed by around sunrise it was mid-morning into mid-day when booming storms on the Virginia side of the stateline intensified to strong-severe levels.


Doppler Base Reflectivity
Slide Show of Elevated Convection
( 10:16 AM to 2:08 PM )

The following can be looked at as individual frames or clicked through in the picture viewer to generate a moving loop over time ( applies to all slide shows ).

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 10:16 AM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 10:21 AM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 10:25 AM - March 2, 2012 

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 10:29 AM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 10:33 AM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 10:37 AM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 10:42 AM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 10:50 AM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 10:55 AM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 10:59 AM - March 2, 2012

[ Note the thunderstorm moving across the VA-TN border into southern Scott County, Va., became a significant hail producer over Gate City.  While many elevated storms do not produce large hail they can generate large quantities of hail, as this storm did to cover the ground & roads ( beneath its high reflectivity core ) ].

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 11:03 AM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 11:08 AM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 11:12 AM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 11:20 AM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 11:29 AM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 11:33 AM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 11:43 AM - March 2, 2012

This marked the end of the first main wave of elevated convection, with a second wave rapidly forming by 12:17 PM.

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 12:17 PM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 12:25 PM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 12:34 PM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 12:38 PM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 12:46 PM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 12:51 PM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 12:59 PM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 1:08 PM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 1:16 PM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 1:20 PM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 1:25 PM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 1:29 PM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 1:39 PM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 1:47 PM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 1:56 PM - March 2, 2012

Doppler Base Reflectivity at 2:08 PM - March 2, 2012

A final batch of showers & embedded downpours forming over Wise, Scott, and Lee counties at 2:08 PM marked the end of this elevated convective period ( with attention now shifting west ).

[ While every single tornado that impacted any life was significant during this outbreak, the following slide shows will document atmospheric conditions during the main event time leading up to eastern Kentucky EF-3 tornadoes ( with a specific focus upon the West Liberty EF-3 around 2300 UTC ) ].


Major Tornado Outbreak
The Main Event

USA Water Vapor Satellite Image At 2:45 PM - March 2, 2012

Many important ingredients were clearly present on early afternoon water vapor imagery, with a distinct V-shaped divergence signature associated with explosive convective development seen ahead of a cold pocket pushing into mid-level drying.

Being early March this was an anomalous setting in which there was a steady, eastward shift of best thermodynamics ahead of supercell development, as low-levels that were cool and stable gave way to conditions capable of supporting surface based storms ( helicity and other parameters to follow ).

[ Surface based thunderstorms became most widespread across western-central portions of the warm sector into the afternoon, as eastern portions struggled to recover from stable surface conditions and elevated morning to early afternoon convective activity ].

This process was signaled by positive 3-hour changes in Theta-E, with max changes occurring ahead of monster supercell initiation and storm propagation.


Slide Show Of Theta-E Changes
And Composite Doppler Reflectivity
( 1500z to 2300z on March 2, 2012 )

Equivalent Potential Temperature ( Theta-E ) increases over time show where the atmosphere is becoming more buoyant, with the positive changes occurring as a result of increases in temperature and/or moisture ( in this case with increases in both ). 

10:00 AM ( 1500z ) - March 2, 2012
Composite Doppler and 3-Hour Theta-E Change

11:00 AM ( 1600z ) - March 2, 2012
Composite Doppler and 3-Hour Theta-E Change

12:00 AM ( 1700z ) - March 2, 2012
Composite Doppler and 3-Hour Theta-E Change

[ In this case MAX changes in Theta-E over southern Illinois & Indiana into western Kentucky indicated in advance where the strongest supercells developed, with these max changes moving ahead of the convection into eastern Kentucky and zeroing in on the area around West Liberty and Salyersville by 2100-2200z ].

1:00 PM ( 1800z ) - March 2, 2012
Composite Doppler and 3-Hour Theta-E Change

2:00 PM ( 1900z ) - March 2, 2012
Composite Doppler and 3-Hour Theta-E Change

3:00 PM ( 2000z ) - March 2, 2012
Composite Doppler and 3-Hour Theta-E Change

4:00 PM ( 2100z ) - March 2, 2012
Composite Doppler and 3-Hour Theta-E Change

5:00 PM ( 2200z ) - March 2, 2012
Composite Doppler and 3-Hour Theta-E Change

6:00 PM ( 2300z ) - March 2, 2012
Composite Doppler and 3-Hour Theta-E Change



Slide Show of 850 MB Moisture Transport
 ( Supplying Energy for Storm Development )

10:00 AM ( 1500z ) - March 2, 2012
850 MB Moisture Transport & Vector Magnitudes

At 1500z the strongest 850 MB transport of richest moisture was feeding into convection of the warm advection regime from Tennessee & Kentucky into the local mountains, as highlighted by the previous Doppler slide show ( * ).

*Locally severe elevated storms in warm advection were also occurring well north and west of the mountains early in the day, as noted by the SPC Day 1 Discussions later in this section.

The elevated convective focus presented above being upon the local mountains ( this is the High Knob Landform website which typically has a local focus, however, the historic nature of this event demands a broader perspective ).

1:00 PM ( 1800z ) - March 2, 2012
850 MB Moisture Transport & Vector Magnitudes

During the afternoon strong 850 MB transport expanded across the warm sector and HIGH RISK region of the SPC, driven in part by the increasing surface-850 MB convergence along & ahead of a strong cold front acting as a low-level lifting mechanism triggering the main band of convection.

2:00 PM ( 1900z ) - March 2, 2012
850 MB Moisture Transport & Vector Magnitudes

3:00 PM ( 2000z ) - March 2, 2012
850 MB Moisture Transport & Vector Magnitudes

4:00 PM ( 2100z ) - March 2, 2012
850 MB Moisture Transport & Vector Magnitudes

5:00 PM ( 2200z ) - March 2, 2012
850 MB Moisture Transport & Vector Magnitudes

6:00 PM ( 2300z ) - March 2, 2012
850 MB Moisture Transport & Vector Magnitudes

Slide shows above give a very basic view of some thermodynamics, with a more detailed analysis below looking into some of the reasons why the SPC correctly upgraded to a rare HIGH risk prior to the main event.


SPC Changes In Risk Regions
( From Moderate to HIGH )

SPC Day 1 Outlook At 0542z - March 2, 2012

SPC Day 1 Update At 1630z - March 2, 2012

SPC Day 1 Tornado Probability At 0532z - March 2, 2012

SPC Updated Tornado Probability 1630z - March 2, 2012

SPC Day 1 Discussion 0542z - March 2, 2012

SPC Updated Discussion 1630z - March 2, 2012



Mesoscale Analysis
Afternoon Conditions
( March 2, 2012 )

Analysis reveals that surface based instability by 2000 UTC had greatly increased from southern Indiana into western-central portions of Kentucky, amid extreme wind shear, with much more surface stability over northeastern Kentucky.

[ Note that the following slide shows begin around the time of the Henryville, Indiana EF-4 and end at the time of the West Liberty, Ky., EF-3 over Morgan County ].


Slide Show of Surface Based CAPE
+ Surface Based Convective Inhibition

3:00 PM ( 2000z ) - March 2, 2012
SB CAPE & SB CIN + Surface Winds & Reflectivity

4:00 PM ( 2100z ) - March 2, 2012
SB CAPE & SB CIN + Surface Winds & Reflectivity

Observe that significant surface based CAPE values were collapsing southeastward and dropping over time in advance of approaching surface-850 MB troughs and lowering late afternoon sun angles.

5:00 PM ( 2200z ) - March 2, 2012
SB CAPE & SB CIN + Surface Winds & Reflectivity

6:00 PM ( 2300z ) - March 2, 2012
SB CAPE & SB CIN + Surface Winds & Reflectivity


Slide Show of Most Unstable CAPE
and Lifted Parcel Levels

3:00 PM ( 2000z ) - March 2, 2012
MUCAPE + Lifted Parcel Levels & Doppler Reflectivity

Reference the SPC for more information on CAPE and MUCAPE, with values in this case being on the low end for significant tornado potential.

Rich Thompson

4:00 PM ( 2100z ) - March 2, 2012
MUCAPE + Lifted Parcel Levels & Doppler Reflectivity

5:00 PM ( 2200z ) - March 2, 2012
MUCAPE + Lifted Parcel Levels & Doppler Reflectivity

MUCAPE charts show the Henryville, Indiana EF-4 formed in an atmosphere having moderate Convective Available Potential Energy that was surface based, with eastward propagation of the supercells into an environment where the most unstable CAPE remained elevated 750 to 1000 meters above ground level over West Liberty, Ky., at 2300z ( dropping from over 1000 meters at 2000z ).

6:00 PM ( 2300z ) - March 2, 2012
MUCAPE + Lifted Parcel Levels & Doppler Reflectivity


Slide Show of Energy Helicity Index
( 0-1 KM Using Mixed Layer CAPE )

Generalized EHI Value Guide:

EHI = 1
Tornadoes Possible

EHI = 1 to 2
Moderate to Strong Tornadoes Possible

EHI > 2
Significant Tornadoes Possible


EHI = CAPE x Storm Relative Helicity
160,000


3:00 PM ( 2000z ) - March 2, 2012
Surface to 1 KM EHI & Doppler Base Reflecitivty

4:00 PM ( 2100z ) - March 2, 2012
Surface to 1 KM EHI & Doppler Base Reflecitivty

5:00 PM ( 2200z ) - March 2, 2012
Surface to 1 KM EHI & Doppler Base Reflecitivty

6:00 PM ( 2300z ) - March 2, 2012
Surface to 1 KM EHI & Doppler Base Reflecitivty

These charts show exceptional EHI values in place over the SPC HIGH RISK region with an east to southeast propagation of the highest EHI into the Cumberland Plateau & Cumberland Mountains 
( including Lee County, VA ) by 2300 UTC.


Slide Show of Energy Helicity Index
( 0-3 KM Using Mixed Layer CAPE )

3:00 PM ( 2000z ) - March 2, 2012
Surface to 3 KM EHI & Doppler Base Reflecitivty

4:00 PM ( 2100z ) - March 2, 2012
Surface to 3 KM EHI & Doppler Base Reflecitivty

5:00 PM ( 2200z ) - March 2, 2012
Surface to 3 KM EHI & Doppler Base Reflecitivty

6:00 PM ( 2300z ) - March 2, 2012
Surface to 3 KM EHI & Doppler Base Reflecitivty

Given the SB CAPE and MUCAPE charts already highlighted it is clear that these exceptional EHI values are being driven by extreme storm relative helicity, so lets take a closer look at this aspect.

[ Note that the following two slide shows extend through the evening hours of March 2 to also include the time period of Claiborne County, Tn., and Lee County, Va., tornadoes ].


Slide Show of Storm Relative Helicity
( 0 to 3 KM and Storm Motion Vectors )


Generalized SRH Value Guide:

SRH = 150 to 299
Supercells Possible with Weak Tornadoes

SRH > 250
Increasing Threat of Tornadoes

SRH = 300 to 499
Very Favorable for Supercells & Strong Tornadoes

SRH > 450
Violent Tornadoes Possible


4:30 PM ( 2130z ) - March 2, 2012
0-3 KM Storm Relative Helicity & Storm Motion

5:00 PM ( 2200z ) - March 2, 2012
0-3 KM Storm Relative Helicity & Storm Motion

At 2300z the 1250 m2/s2 value of SRH over West Liberty, Ky., was three times what was needed to have violent tornadoes!

6:00 PM ( 2300z ) - March 2, 2012
0-3 KM Storm Relative Helicity & Storm Motion

7:00 PM ( 0000z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
0-3 KM Storm Relative Helicity & Storm Motion

8:00 PM ( 0100z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
0-3 KM Storm Relative Helicity & Storm Motion

9:00 PM ( 0200z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
0-3 KM Storm Relative Helicity & Storm Motion

10:00 PM ( 0300z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
0-3 KM Storm Relative Helicity & Storm Motion


Slide Show
Effective Storm Relative Helicity - ESRH
( Including Effective Inflow Base & Storm Motion )

4:30 PM ( 2130z ) - March 2, 2012
Effective SRH & Inflow Base With Storm Motion Vectors

5:00 PM ( 2200z ) - March 2, 2012
Effective SRH & Inflow Base With Storm Motion Vectors

Since the Most Unstable CAPE at 2300z over West Liberty, Ky., was shown to be elevated well above ground level, Effective SRH should be looked at to see what value it gives for helicity relative to the storm.

6:00 PM ( 2300z ) - March 2, 2012
Effective SRH & Inflow Base With Storm Motion Vectors

At 2300z the Morgan County EF-3 is amid a tight ESRH gradient that is advecting along with the supercells, with values between 200-900 m2/s2 that jump to 1000 m2/s2 by 0000z ( 7 PM local time ).

Outrageous values!

No wonder EF-3 tornado paths which devastated West Liberty, Salyersville, and many other places in both Kentucky and western West Virginia were so long-tracked and wide.

[ The concept being analogous to spinning a top, the faster you spin it the longer it takes to wind down, which in a simplistic way explains part of the reason why these were such long-track tornadoes ].

7:00 PM ( 0000z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Effective SRH & Inflow Base With Storm Motion Vectors

It was also during this time that a supercell with a Doppler indicated hook echo & TVS signature had prompted tornado warnings for Bell and Harlan counties in southeast Kentucky and Wise County in southwestern Virginia ( detailed in later section ).

8:00 PM ( 0100z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Effective SRH & Inflow Base With Storm Motion Vectors

9:00 PM ( 0200z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Effective SRH & Inflow Base With Storm Motion Vectors

10:00 PM ( 0300z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Effective SRH & Inflow Base With Storm Motion Vectors

For more information reference:

RICHARD L. THOMPSON, COREY M. MEAD, AND ROGER EDWARDS



Slide Show of Effective Bulk Shear
 ( 6:00 PM to 10 PM Local Time )


Generalized Guide:

Effective Bulk Shear = 25 to 40+ knots
Supercells Become Increasingly Likely


6:00 PM ( 2300z ) - March 2, 2012
Effective Bulk Wind Shear Vector ( Knots )

7:00 PM ( 0000z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Effective Bulk Wind Shear Vector ( Knots )

8:00 PM ( 0100z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Effective Bulk Wind Shear Vector ( Knots )

9:00 ( 0200z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Effective Bulk Wind Shear Vector ( Knots )

10:00 PM ( 0300z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Effective Bulk Wind Shear Vector ( Knots )


Afternoon Changes On 
NASA Visible Imagery

NASA Visible At 1710z ( 12:10 PM ) - March 2, 2012

Extensive mid-day cloudiness gave way to notable breaks in the overcast west of the Appalachians and High Knob Landform into early afternoon.

NASA Visible At 1925z ( 2:25 PM ) - March 2, 2012

NASA Visible At 1940z ( 2:40 PM ) - March 2, 2012

NASA Visible At 2025z ( 3:25 PM ) - March 2, 2012

Towering tops of supercell thunderstorms were illuminated by low sun angles in late afternoon, complete with rippling gravity waves.

NASA Visible At 2125z ( 4:25 PM ) - March 2, 2012

NASA Visible At 2210z ( 5:10 PM ) - March 2, 2012

NASA Visible At 2240z ( 5:40 PM ) - March 2, 2012



Focus Upon The West Liberty
EF-3 Tornado - 5:58 PM
( March 2, 2012 )

Family's Surveillance Cameras Catch Tornado
Video Courtesy of YouTube

A home security system with 7 different camera angles caught the West Liberty, Ky., EF-3 as it passed by.  One must note that this home did not take a direct hit but was close with tremendous inflow noted into the tornado.

[ There is no sound on this video.  The funnel of the tornado can be seen in upper right corner during the 0:57-1:15 time period.  A direct hit would not have left the car sitting upright, or the house most likely, and this video probably would have been lost ].

6:00 PM ( 2300z ) - March 2, 2012
Theta-E Ridge ( Axis of Available Potential Energy )

Although CAPE values were relatively low during this event, supercells fired within and propagated along with a Theta-E ridge and more than made up for limitations of thermodynamics with very strong fluid dynamics ( especially in northeastern Kentucky ).

6:00 PM ( 2300z ) - March 2, 2012
Jet Stream Level Divergence At 300 MB

Low-level convergence was aided by upper-level divergence and splitting of high altitude jet stream wind fields, allowing the tilted supercells plenty of room for growth as air was exhausted out their tops like in a chimney.

6:00 PM ( 2300z ) - March 2, 2012
850 MB to 500 MB Wind Crossover Angles

While the helicity vector component of speed shear was greatest in magnitude, the directional portion was not trivial with significant veering of vertical wind profiles from SE-SSE at the surface to SSW-WSW aloft.

Terrain Surrounding West Liberty, Kentucky

Since most hills around West Liberty are below 1200 feet above sea level and only 200 to 400 feet taller than valley floors the effective inflow base and lifted parcel levels were elevated enough that terrain likely had little impact upon inflow with the separation of the rotating updraft from downdrafts, due in part to storm tilt, combining to generate a Great Plains tornado setting amid the Appalachian foothills.

[ Just over 15 air miles to the southeast this same type of horror played out for residents of Salyersville, Ky., in Magoffin County.  While these communities are highlighted, many were impacted by a combined on the ground path of 135 miles for just these two tornadoes ( as surveyed by NWS Forecast Offices in Jackson, Ky., and Charleston, Wv. ) ].

6:00 PM ( 2300z ) - March 2, 2012
Current Lifted Parcel Levels & 3 Hour MUCAPE Change


Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity
Slide Show of West Liberty EF-3
( Frames Centered At Huntington, West Virginia )

A classic tornadic supercell presentation was displayed by this storm with V-shaped divergence and a tremendous hook that upon tearing through West Liberty took on the appearance of a ball of debris ( some of which would be carried more than 90 air miles and dropped upon the state capitol of West Virginia in Charleston. Simply incredible! ).

Storm Statistics from JKL NWSFO

EVENT DATE: MARCH 2 2012 
EVENT TYPE: EF-3
 TORNADO ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS: 140 MPH 
INJURIES/FATALITIES: 
2 FATALITIES IN MENIFEE COUNTY 
6 FATALITIES IN MORGAN COUNTY
 EVENT START TIME/LOCATION: 539 PM EST AT 37.905022N/83.614639W 
EVENT END TIME/LOCATION: 618 PM EST AT 37.9921N/82.9198W 
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH:  APPROX 86 MILES TOTAL
( 60 MILES IN KENTUCKY & 26 MILES IN WEST VIRGINIA
DAMAGE WIDTH: MAXIMUM 1 MILE WIDTH

*EVENT END TIME IN THE NWS JACKSON KY FORECAST AREA.

2247z - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 5:47 PM

2252z - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 5:52 PM

2256z - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 5:56 PM

2301z - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 6:01 PM

2305z - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 6:05 PM

2310z - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 6:10 PM

[ Note another supercell with a distinctive hook coming into view northwest of the West Liberty EF-3 was an EF-1 tornado producer in Bath County, Kentucky ].

2314z - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 6:14 PM 

2319z - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 6:19 PM 

2324z - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 6:24 PM 

2328z - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 6:28 PM 

Chief meteorologist Tony Cavalier, of WSAZ-TV in Huntington, Wv., writes about his emotional visits to Morgan & Lawrence counties in wake of this destructive and historic Kentucky tornado.

Meteorologist Tony Cavalier ( WSAZ-TV )

Killer Tornado Part II - Lawrence County




Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity
Slide Show of Salyersville EF-3
( Frames Centered At Pikeville, Kentucky )

Another classic supercell developed just southeast of the West Liberty storm track with a devastating strike on Salyersville, Ky., just after 7:00 PM.  It also formed a tremendous hook.

Storm Statistics from JKL NWSFO

EVENT DATE: MARCH 2, 2012
EVENT TYPE: EF-3
TORNADO ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS: 160 MPH 
INJURIES/FATALITIES: 2 FATALITIES IN JOHNSON COUNTY
EVENT START TIME/LOCATION: 650 EST AT 37.703883N/83.2728W 
EVENT END TIME/LOCATION: 738 PM EST AT 37.832617N/82.403883W 
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH: 49 MILES IN TOTAL
( 48 MILES IN KENTUCKY & 1 MILE IN WEST VIRGINIA )      
DAMAGE WIDTH: MAXIMUM WIDTH 0.75 MILES

*EVENT END TIME IN THE NWS JACKSON KY FORECAST AREA

2347z - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 6:47 PM

2351z - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 6:51 PM

2356z - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 6:56 PM

( 0001z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 7:01 PM

( 0005z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 7:05 PM

( 0010z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 7:10 PM

( 0014z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 7:14 PM

( 0019z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 7:19 PM

( 0024z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 7:24 PM

( 0028z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 7:28 PM

( 0033z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 7:33 PM

( 0037z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 7:37 PM

[ NOTE:  It takes time to pick out these individual frames for a slide show presentation so I have only included Base Reflectivity and not Velocities.  For a loop of base velocities ( showing RED-GREEN couplets, reference the following NEXRAD loops which can also be found on YouTube ].


Nexrad Level II LOOPS
Base Reflectivity & Base Velocity
( West Liberty & Salyersville Tornadoes )


For more details please reference:






Monster Supercell Threatens
The Cumberland Overthrust Block

As tornadic supercells were ravaging northeastern Kentucky a new thunderstorm developed and moved across the I-75 corridor into mountains of the Cumberland Block.

[ This rapidly developed into a high reflectivity supercell with a hail core and TVS signature on Doppler that formed a notable hook by around 2330z ( 6:30 PM ) ].

2310z - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 6:10 PM

2319z - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 6:19 PM

2328z - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 6:28 PM

2337z - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 6:37 PM

2347z - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 6:47 PM

This supercell was moving into an atmosphere with greater available potential energy but less total storm relative helicity ( but very significant in this setting ) than supercells over northeast Kentucky, thus the surface to 3 km Energy Helicity Index on this storm was higher as CAPE added more to its total value ( reference previous EHI definition ).

7:00 PM ( 0000z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Surface to 1 KM Storm Relative Helicity & Storm Motion

7:00 PM ( 0000z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Mean Sea Level Pressure & Surface Wind Pattern

This supercell was isolated out by itself in advance of the surface cold front with excellent inflow of moist, relatively high energy and highly sheared air.

The Bottom Line...
This was a very worrisome storm given the terrible destruction ongoing to the north!



Doppler Radar Reflectivity
Slide Show of Storm Evolution
( 6:51 PM to 8:01 PM )

2351z - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 6:51 PM

2356z - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 6:56 PM

Hail of 2.00" to 2.75" in diameter was reported with the supercell as it passed over the Lenarve and Grays Knob communities in Harlan County, Ky., with trees downed in the Putney area.

( 0001z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 7:01 PM

( 0005z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 7:05 PM

This supercell underwent a dramatic change in structure upon reaching the Virginia-Kentucky border during the 0010-0020z period to suggest orographics and frictional drag became significant factors in its propagation and intensity across the Black Mountain-High Knob Massif corridor.

( 0010z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 7:10 PM

( 0014z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 7:14 PM

( 0019z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 7:19 PM

( 0024z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 7:24 PM

( 0028z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 7:28 PM

( 0033z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 7:33 PM

[ This was a very powerful storm even at its far northern periphery where ROARING outflow was observed in Clintwood as its core passed well to the south along northern slopes of the High Knob Massif into southern Wise & Dickenson counties ].

( 0037z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 7:37 PM

( 0043z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 7:43 PM

( 0048z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 7:48 PM

( 0052z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 7:52 PM

( 0057z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 7:57 PM

( 0101z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 8:01 PM

The section where this supercell began to change is shown below, with 3000 to 4000+ feet mountain ridges and sprawling highcountry that is dramatically different from the foothill terrain of northeastern Kentucky.

( Dramatically Different Terrain From NE Kentucky )
Black Mountain - Upper High Knob Landform Corridor
Terrain Map Courtesy of Google

The upper portion of the High Knob Landform includes its remnant massif of highcountry, a portion of which is visible above, and its Little Stone Mountain arm, the Powell Valley of Wise County, the upper part of the Powell River Valley, and the northwestern & southeastern mountain flanks of its extended landform that rest adjacent to the Black Mountains.

While there is no place completely safe from a destructive tornado, odds are excellent that IF the above supercell had not run across lofty mountain terrain that it would have become another long-track, violent tornado producer given atmospheric conditions present and the activity ongoing at that time northwest of the mountains!



EF-1 & EF-2 Tornadoes
Evening of March 2, 2012
( Claiborne County, Tn., and Lee County, Va. )


Storm Statistics from MRX NWSFO
March 2, 2012 Tornado Outbreak

HARROGATE, TN
EVENT DATE: MARCH 2, 2012
EVENT TYPE: EF-2
TORNADO ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS: 120 MPH 
EVENT TIME: 829 PM 
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH: 2.7 MILES IN TOTAL     
DAMAGE WIDTH: 250 YARDS

EWING, VA
EVENT DATE: MARCH 2, 2012
EVENT TYPE: EF-1
TORNADO ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS: 110 MPH 
EVENT TIME: 842 PM 
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH: 4.8 MILES IN TOTAL     
DAMAGE WIDTH: 200 YARDS

JONESVILLE, VA
EVENT DATE: MARCH 2, 2012
EVENT TYPE: EF-1
TORNADO ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS: 95 MPH 
EVENT TIME: 910 PM 
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH: 1.0 MILE IN TOTAL     
DAMAGE WIDTH: 100 YARDS


Reference above graphics for this period:
Effective Storm Relative Helicity
Effective Bulk Shear Vectors
0-3 KM Storm Relative Helicity

High values of effective SRH and bulk shear dropped significantly during the 8:00 to 10:00 PM period of March 2, but not before several more tornadoes formed.

8:00 PM ( 0100z March 3 ) March 2, 2012
Surface to 1 KM Storm Relative Helicity & Storm Motion

9:00 PM ( 0200z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Surface to 1 KM Storm Relative Helicity & Storm Motion

Extreme values of 0-1 km storm relative helicity, suggestive of more than enough for violent tornadoes, are modified some by ESRH with its constraints on CAPE & CIN ( refer to previous slide show ).

However, values over western Lee and Claiborne counties remained very high into the 8:00 to 9:00 PM period with a notable increase in upper level divergence shown on 300 MB jet stream charts.

8:00 PM ( 0100z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
300 MB Height - Divergence - Wind Vectors

9:00 PM ( 0200z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
300 MB Height - Divergence - Wind Vectors

8:00 PM ( 0100z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Mean Sea Level Pressure & Surface Wind Vectors

9:00 PM ( 0200z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Mean Sea Level Pressure & Surface Wind Vectors

A drop in supercell and tornado parameters after 9:00 PM along the surface-850 mb troughs did not eradicate severe threats as a line echo wave pattern took shape with activity pushing across the High Knob Landform and western Appalachians into the Great Valley.

10:00 PM ( 0300z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Mean Sea Level Pressure & Surface Wind Vectors



Doppler Radar Reflectivity
Slide Show of Evening Activity
( Frames Centered At Jacksboro, Tennessee )

( 0115z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 8:15 PM

( 0120z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 8:20 PM

( 0125z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 8:25 PM

At the time of the Harrogate EF-2 there was a TVS and red-green couplet on storm relative mean radial velocity scans ( not shown ) but no more than a weak echo region on the base reflectivity below, in dramatic contrast to earlier supercells with major hooks.

[ Signs that the atmosphere was changing back toward the more typical, rain-wrapped and much shorter lived and track tornadoes of the Appalachians ( climatological mean type ) ].

( 0129z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 8:29 PM

( 0134z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 8:34 PM

( 0138z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 8:38 PM


Doppler Radar Reflectivity
Slide Show of Evening Activity
( Frames Centered At Wise, Virginia )

A large rounded supercell centered over the Powell River Valley of western Lee County was observed on Doppler at the time of the Ewing EF-1 tornado, with broken but developing line segments to the northwest near the western edge of the mountains.

( 0143z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 8:43 PM 

( 0148z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 8:48 PM 

( 0152z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 8:52 PM 

( 0157z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 8:57 PM 

( 0201z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 9:01 PM 

( 0206z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 9:06 PM  

( 0211z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 9:11 PM  

( 0215z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 9:15 PM  

( 0220z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 9:20 PM  

( 0225z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 9:25 PM  

( 0229z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 9:29 PM  

( 0234z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 9:34 PM  

( 0238z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 9:38 PM  

( 0244z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 9:44 PM  

( 0249z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 9:49 PM  


Line Echo Wave Pattern 
( LEWP ) Formation

Beyond the 9:10 PM time of the final EF-1 tornado just southeast of Jonesville in Lee County, Va., a trend toward wavy line formation occurred with LEWP taking shape along and just east of the western front range of the mountains. 

( 0253z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 9:53 PM  

( 0253z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 9:53 PM   

( 0253z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 9:53 PM   

A major bow in the line developed just leeward of the High Knob Massif in a climatologically favored zone of formation documented many times in the past as squall lines pass lee of the massif.

( 0258z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 9:58 PM   

( 0302z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 10:02 PM   

( 0307z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 10:07 PM   

( 0312z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 10:12 PM   

( 0316z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 10:16 PM 

( 0321z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 10:21 PM 

( 0325z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 10:25 PM 

( 0330z March 3 ) - March 2, 2012
Doppler Radar Base Reflectivity at 10:30 PM 

Finally, this terrible day was ending!


Heavy Rainfall Totals
( February 29 to March 3, 2012 )

Active storms with an initial outbreak of severe weather during February 29 combined with this event to generate 3.00" to 4.00"+ rainfall totals across the High Knob Landform, from the City of Norton and High Knob Massif southwest through Lee County & Cumberland Gap National Park.

Ending At 2:57 AM ( 0757z ) March 1, 2012
Doppler Storm Rainfall Totals For First Event

Ending At 12:26 AM ( 0526z ) March 3, 2012
Doppler Storm Rainfall Totals For Second Event

Minor flooding was reported in:
Big Stone Gap
East Stone Gap
City of Norton
Tacoma
Coeburn
( Parts of Lee & Scott counties )

USGS river gages featured significant rises during this stormy period.

Powell River At Big Stone Gap In Wise County

The first peak was in the wake of rain and snow melt following the heavy snowfall of February 19.


Powell River Near Jonesville In Lee County

Clinch River At Speers Ferry In Scott County


Significant NW to SE Rainfall Gradient 
Across Southwestern Virginia
( February 29-March 3, 2012 )

Woolwine: 0.34"

Galax WTP: 0.57"

Independence 1.3 S: 0.72"

Danville: 0.79"

Meadows of Dan 5 SW: 0.94"

Trout Dale 3 SSE: 1.19"

Wytheville 1 S: 1.25"

Tri-Cities ( TN ): 1.43"

Grayson Highlands State Park: 1.52"
( Elevation 4000 feet )

Grundy: 1.54"

Marion 4.4 WSW: 1.67"

Roanoke: 1.70"

Abingdon 3 S: 1.86"

Blacksburg: 1.95"

Richlands: 2.11"

Clintwood 1 W: 2.15"

Saltville 1 N: 2.20"

Burkes Garden: 2.38"

Lebanon: 2.42"

Nora 4 SSE: 2.67"
( Long Ridge of Tennessee Valley Divide )

Robinson Knob of High Knob Massif: 3.28"
( 5.5 air miles SE of Norton WP )

Norton Water Plant: 3.53"
( Northern base of High Knob Massif )

Jonesville 3.1 WSW: 3.56"
( Northern edge of The Cedars )


Some Final Thoughts

What I have covered above is strictly for historical documentation of atmospheric conditions which generated the greatest tornadoes ever observed in my life time from the Cumberland Mountains west across the Kentucky foothills.

While tornadoes are atmospheric marvels they are BEASTS.  Just as one would never lock old people, children, and babies inside a cage with hungry Lions, Tigers & Bears, they would not put homes & lives in the path of tornadoes who ravage anything in their way!

[ In a perfect world Tornadoes would only roam the high, open Plains where no one lives and we who are interested could study, photograph & film these incredible monsters at safe distances ].

Since the world is far from perfect there are points for learning and investigation presented above.

1 ).  That elevated convection will turn strong to severe can be anticipated under certain atmospheric conditions ( such as those documented in this case where many were surprised ).

2 ).  Extreme shear can compensate for a lack of surface based thermodynamics to drive long-track, violent tornadoes across Appalachian foothill terrain during astronomical winter.

3 ).  Highly visible, Great Plains-like tornadoes can occur in this region, even during winter, when vertical tilting of storms act to keep rotating updrafts separated from low energy downdrafts ( going against the rain-wrapped, short-lived twisters which are the climatological norm in rough Appalachian terrain ).

4 ).  The elevation of inflow bases and the best MUCAPE above relatively low foothill terrain appeared to minimize effects of crossing rough surface topography which rested well below these parameters for eastern Kentucky EF-2 to EF-3 tornadoes ( e.g., the powerful West Liberty and Salyersville tornadoes ).

5 ).  Lower inflow bases and better CAPE which formed a strong hook and TVS signature on a preferred, isolated supercell over far southeastern Kentucky during the same time period had much different results as it interacted with lofty mountain terrain upon crossing into Virginia [ i.e., no reported damage and a radical change in storm structure ( * ) ].

*Hail of 1" to 2.75" in diameter, and localized tree damage, was reported in Bell and Harlan counties with the supercell.

6 ).  An early evening transition back toward more typical Appalachian tornadoes occurred amid the rolling, open Powell River Valley at the southwestern end of the High Knob Landform and Cumberland Block during a atmospheric transitional period featuring significant gradients on various parameters.

7 ).  A supercell mode gave way to line echo wave pattern formation with a large bow developing within a climatologically favored position in which it has been documented many times in past cases ( i.e., with a relationship to orographics and air flow ).

In wake of the Big Stone Gap EF-1 tornado of March 4, 2008 I reminded everyone that current technology is simply not good enough to keep you safe in all conditions.

It is up to each of us to take responsibility for our own safety and the safety of family, friends and others whom we might be able to warn ( even before official warnings may or may not be given ).

The Great Plains-like tornadoes of March 2 were a rare departure from more typical, rain-wrapped, sudden and short-lived twisters most common in the Appalachians
( which are much harder to warn for in advance ).

The Storm Prediction Center, local NWS Forecast Officies out of Jackson, Ky., Charleston, Wv., and Morristown, Tn., as well as the TOR:CON of Dr. Greg Forbes, all did outstanding jobs during this historic severe weather outbreak ( as did local TV stations who remained on-air for hours during threatening conditions with many local thanks ).

With the above in mind, I recently found a blog by storm chaser, writer, and meteorologist Jon Davies that essentially echoed what I wrote in newspapers following the Big Stone Gap EF-1 of March 2008.

It is well worth a read!

Jon Davies - Meteorologist & Storm Chaser


NOTE: This website is set up to be best viewed using Internet Explorer 9 and Google Chrome web browsers ( text may be out of alignment using other browsers ).


Follow-Up Safety Note
The single common denominator that most tornado victims find simply shocking is how FAST it comes and goes.

The terror of a ROARING freight train 
that destroys in a flash of time!

It is very important for everyone to have a pre-designated safe place or room with head helmets and some type of body protection there now since when a tornado strikes there is NOT enough time to gather up needed items.

Tornado Safety - Storm Prediction Center

Reference this link to important information from experts at the Storm Prediction Center.