Wicked Conditions In The High Knob Massif

January 22, 2014
Remnant Massif of High Knob Landform

Hazardous In High Knob Massif Rime Forest

Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

The High Knob Landform

Snow, rime, and SUB-zero coldness have turned conditions harsh in the High Knob Massif where wickedness and beauty collide!

January 22, 2014
Upper Elevations of High Knob Massif
Road Conditions Following Wind Blown Snow

Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

A general 4" to 8" of snow depth accumulated across the highlands of Wise County, Va., 
during the January 21-22 winter storm.

An additional 0.5" to 1.5" accumulated with a reinforcing
arctic cold front during the morning of January 23.

More DOUBLE-Digit Sub-Zero cold followed,
with brutal wind chill factors once again.

A testimony to recent bitter coldness has been a continuation of ice accumulations amid the Falls 
of Little Stony Creek Gorge, where great mounds 
of ice now stand above this Class IV-V steep creek.

January 26, 2014
Elevation 2180 feet
Jefferson National Forest
Little Stony Creek of High Knob Massif
Frozen Upper Falls of Little Stony Gorge

Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

American Whitewater Class IV-V Steep Creek

With another bitter blast poised to strike 
during January 27-29, ice will only increase!

January 26, 2014
Upper Tennessee River Basin
Great Mounds Of Ice On Little Stony Creek

Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

The Upper Falls of Little Stony Creek Gorge is 10 air miles ESE of the High Knob peak, near the southeastern end of the massif in Scott County, Va., 2043 vertical feet lower than the summit level and 890 vertical feet higher than the Clinch River at Dungannon.

January 26, 2014
High Knob Massif
Majestic Upper Falls of Little Stony Gorge
Blue-GREEN Color Of Frozen Waterfall Pools

Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

The increase in hydrogen bonding of water molecules amid the more rigid lattice structure 
of ice changes the absorption spectrum to lower energy levels, making back scattered rays from light penetrating deeply into these frozen mounds of ice appear green to bluish-green in color.

Causes Of Color - Snow And Ice

January 16, 2014
HDR Photograph At Upper Falls of Little Stony
Frozen Mound Of Greenish Ice At Frozen Falls

Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

January 26, 2014
Upper Falls of Little Stony Creek Gorge
Looking Down Upon Top Of Frozen Falls

Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

The swirl of whitewater through an opening in the ice is all that could be seen upon looking down from top of the 25-30 foot falls, with a solidly frozen pool of water stretching outward in the distance ( partially covered by snow ).

One year ago it was all about gushing whitewater amid a blizzard of intense snowfall, spiced with lightning & thunder, as The Fast & Furious Storm dumped over 15" of snow depth on Little Stony Gorge within just a few hours during January 17.

As pro kayaker Stephen McGrady said, 
"It Was Awesome."

January 17, 2013
Scroll Down To Running Little Stony Gorge
The Fast & Furious Storm of January 2013

or watch "One For The Books" now.

January 22, 2014
Water Elevation 3318 feet
Snow Covered Surface of Upper Norton Reservoir

Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

Rod Addington Photography

The five lakes sitting atop the High Knob Massif had frozen prior to this recent winter storm, such that they are now snow covered amid 
their high mountain basins.

Lake Elevations
of the High Knob Massif
( Lakes Amid Core of Massif )

High Knob Lake: 3490 feet
( 733 vertical feet lower than summit level )

Upper Norton Reservoir: 3318 feet
( 905 vertical feet lower than summit level )

Lower Norton Reservoir: 3239 feet
( 984 vertical feet lower than summit level )

Big Cherry Lake: 3120 feet
( 1103 vertical feet lower than summit level )

Bark Camp Lake: 2734 feet
( 1489 vertical feet lower than summit level )

Lofty basins of these majestic mountain lakes are candidates for the coldest temperatures in Virginia on any given night when cold air drainage rules.  Prime conditions include clear skies, light winds, and dry air above a snowpack.  The morning of January 29 is the current pick for the coldest night of Winter 2013-14 ( at least, up to this point ).

The large vertical elevation differences between the summit level and lake basins enhance their decoupling and nocturnal cooling potential throughout the year ( frost is possible in any month ).

January 22, 2014
Benges Basin of High Knob Massif
Upper Norton Reservoir of City of Norton
Pristine Winter Scene & Arctic Sunshine

Photograph by Bill Harris - © All Rights Reserved.

Once lake surfaces freeze there is no possible warming influence at the air-water interface, with extensive snow across lake surfaces adding to the cooling potential of these lofty mountain basins.

Photographer Bill Harris said the air temp was a mere 5 degrees when he captured this pristine winter scene of the Upper Norton Reservoir.

January 22, 2014
Northwestern Flank of High Knob Massif
Rime Capped Peaks of Little Stone Mountain

Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

Majestic Little Stone Mountain is one of the most beautiful and rugged mountains in the southern Appalachians as it rises above Powell Valley in Wise County, Va., forming the northwestern flank of the High Knob Massif and continuous with the northwest limb, or mountain flank, of the High Knob Landform ( * ).

*It continues southwest as Stone-Cumberland Mountain and is broken by Big Stone Gap, Pennington Gap, and Cumberland Gap.

Although rising 2000 vertical feet above the Middle Fork of the Powell River in Big Stone Gap, peaks of Little Stone Mountain are all lower in elevation than the valley floor at High Knob Lake and only slightly higher than extensive valley floors of the Big Cherry Lake basin.

January 22, 2014
View of Southeastern Slopes
Above Snow Covered Powell Valley
Labeled Peaks of Little Stone Mountain

Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

Beautiful Appalachia Lake sits upon the jagged, cliff laden northwest side of Little Stone Mountain at an elevation of
2360 feet, with Rimrock Lake ( 2880 feet ) near its northeast end
( behind fourth unlabeled peak at far right in Rod's photograph ).

Towering above the Head of Powell Valley, with its great calcareous cliffs, a heavily rimed crestline of the massif stood beyond "The Lonesome Pine."

January 22, 2014
High Knob Massif
Towering Above Head of Powell Valley
Looking Toward Rocky Hollow Gap

Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

A field of Snow Flowers amid
the Head of Powell Valley

January 22, 2014
Field Of Snow Flowers On Bitter Winter Day

Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

Back amid the high country, beyond and above the lofty rimed crestline of Rocky Hollow Gap, strong wind gusts were blowing rime crystals through bitter air and adding moisture to the snowpack.

High Knob Massif
Azure Blue Skies Above Rime Forest

Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

A close up reveals the many rime crystals.

January 22, 2014
Along State Route 619 & USFS 238
Wind Blown Snow & Rime Fall

Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

A Rime Storm formed when a gush of bitter wind blew through an opening in the Northern Woods.

January 22, 2014
Winter Wonderland Conditions
Upper Elevations of High Knob Massif
Rime Storm Amid Bitter Wind Gusts

Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

Winter Wonderland Supreme!

January 22, 2014
High Knob Massif
An Arctic Blue Sky Above The Rime Forest

Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

Veteran VDOT snow plow driver John Varner found similar conditions along the crestline of Black Mountain, as he worked the Wise County 
side of State Route 160.

January 22, 2014
Snow Covered State Route 160
Rimed Crestline Along Black Mountain

Photograph by John Varner - © All Rights Reserved.

State Route 160 crosses Black Mountain 
at an elevation of just over 3700 feet.

January 22, 2014
Black Mountain In Wise County, Virginia
Opening The Road To Virginia-Kentucky Travel

Photograph by John Varner - © All Rights Reserved.

John works out of East Stone Gap VDOT and often talks with a contractor that plows State Route 619, between Norton and Camp Rock of the High Knob Massif, where he reports snow depths which are typically greater than on Route 160. 

January 22, 2014
Near The Summit of Black Mountain
A Beauty Shot From State Route 160

Photograph by John Varner - © All Rights Reserved.



A Bitter Day From Space
January 22, 2014

The day began with upslope clouds and mountain waves, as so often is the case, that dissipated to reveal an arctic sky above the freshness of a glistening snowpack.

NASA Visible Images

Click consecutively in picture viewer for motion

NASA Visible Image At 8:15 AM January 22, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 8:32 AM January 22, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 8:45 AM January 22, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 9:02 AM January 22, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 9:15 AM January 22, 2014

Counties Overlay For Reference
NASA Visible Image At 9:15 AM January 22, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 9:32 AM January 22, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 9:45 AM January 22, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 10:15 AM January 22, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 10:45 AM January 22, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 11:02 AM January 22, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 11:15 AM January 22, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 11:32 AM January 22, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 11:45 AM January 22, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 12:15 PM January 22, 2014

Counties Overlay For Reference
NASA Visible Image At 12:15 PM January 22, 2014

A high-resolution visible image taken at 1840 UTC ( 1:40 PM ) on January 22 shows the lack of snow from near southern bases of the High Knob Massif south and southwest across the Great Valley.

High-Resolution Visible Image
NASA Visible Image At 1:40 PM January 22, 2014

NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory

While snow blankets most of the massif area, including majestic Powell Valley in Wise County, Va., a distinct lack of snow is evident southwest across the eroded calcareous core
of the High Knob Landform ( * ).

*Here snow covers only the northwestern flank that includes Cumberland Mountain & higher elevations of Cumberland Gap National Historical Park.



SW Upslope Flow Snow
Warm Air Advection Regime
January 25, 2014

Lee County, Virginia
Amid The SW Flow Snow
Northern Cardinal ( Cardinalis cardinalis )

Photograph by Harold L. Jerrell - © All Rights Reserved.

Significant snow fell upon strong SW air flow trajectories during January 25 with widespread 
2" to 3" depths across Lee County, 3" to 4" from Powell Valley of Wise County into Norton-Wise, and 4" to 6" along windward slopes of the 
High Knob Massif and Black Mountain.

This was a hazardous event and no advisories were issued on the Virginia side of the stateline.  Following outstanding forecasting by the MRX NWS Forecast Office during the January 21-22
winter storm, impacts of this event were badly missed.

January 25, 2014
Bad Travel Along State Route 160
VDOT Working Black Mountain in Wise County

Photograph by John Varner - © All Rights Reserved.

Temperatures were in the 10s to lower 20s during the snowfall periods of this windy event, from the City of Norton-Wise across the High Knob Massif, which combined with strong SW winds ( gusts of 30-40+ mph ) created low wind chills to go along with snow & blowing snow.

January 25, 2014
City of Norton Automated Weather Station

While temperatures are accurate, wind speeds & directions
are not representative of mean conditions in Norton-Wise

The MAX of 26 degrees ( 25.5 degrees at Norton WP ) did not occur until after snow ended behind an evening snow burst associated with a cold frontal passage ( behind which westerly winds briefly actually allowed temperatures to warm prior to plunging again into morning hours of January 26 ).

January 26, 2014 ( Midnight to 1:00 PM )
City of Norton Automated Weather Station

Sample Conditions In Wise

Click consecutively on images for motion

January 25, 2014 at 12:07 PM
University of Virginia's College In Wise

Courtesy of Computer Science-Mathematics Department

January 25, 2014 at 12:08 PM
University of Virginia's College In Wise

Courtesy of Computer Science-Mathematics Department

January 25, 2014 at 12:09 PM
University of Virginia's College In Wise

Courtesy of Computer Science-Mathematics Department

January 25, 2014 at 12:10 PM
University of Virginia's College In Wise

Courtesy of Computer Science-Mathematics Department

January 25, 2014 at 12:11 PM
University of Virginia's College In Wise

Courtesy of Computer Science-Mathematics Department

January 25, 2014 at 12:12 PM
University of Virginia's College In Wise

Courtesy of Computer Science-Mathematics Department

Snow began around 10:00 AM and fell moderate 
to heavy through 1:00 PM before a lull, featuring 
hit-miss snow showers, developed during the 
mid-late afternoon hours of January 25.

Evening bursts of snow recovered 
roads and reduced visibilities.

January 25, 2014 at 7:22 PM
University of Virginia's College In Wise

Courtesy of Computer Science-Mathematics Department

January 25, 2014 at 7:24 PM
University of Virginia's College In Wise

Courtesy of Computer Science-Mathematics Department

January 25, 2014 at 7:35 PM
University of Virginia's College In Wise

Courtesy of Computer Science-Mathematics Department

January 25, 2014 at 7:53 PM
University of Virginia's College In Wise

Courtesy of Computer Science-Mathematics Department

January 25, 2014 at 7:57 PM
University of Virginia's College In Wise

Courtesy of Computer Science-Mathematics Department

January 25, 2014 at 8:06 PM
University of Virginia's College In Wise

Courtesy of Computer Science-Mathematics Department

January 25, 2014 at 8:11 PM
University of Virginia's College In Wise

Courtesy of Computer Science-Mathematics Department

January 25, 2014 at 8:36 PM
Comparison Visibility View With Flurries
University of Virginia's College In Wise

Courtesy of Computer Science-Mathematics Department

Another important aspect of this event emerged since air was
vertically cold enough to support snow through the atmosphere.

*What Is A Golden Rule of Tri-Cities Snow Forecasting ( with respect to orographics )?

As I have stated on this website long ago...

More snow always tends to fall across the TRI, given air is cold enough for snow, when air flow trajectories DO NOT have to cross the High Knob Landform - Black Mountain corridor to reach the Great Valley.  Again, take note forecasters!

*This means more snow can fall upon the Tri-Cities area when air flow is W to SW in direction ( missing moisture extraction by the high Cumberlands ) since it arrives with more moisture for snow production when air is cold enough for crystalline magic!

( In Wake of January 25 Snow )
NASA Visible Images

Click consecutively on images for motion

NASA Visible Image At 8:59 AM January 26, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 9:15 AM January 26, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 9:30 AM January 26, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 9:45 AM January 26, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 10:15 AM January 26, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 10:45 AM January 26, 2014

Graphic Image
NASA Visible Image At 10:45 AM January 26, 2014

Counties Overlay For Reference
NASA Visible Image At 10:45 AM January 26, 2014

The 4" of snow at City of Norton WP brought 

the snow depth to 6", when adding in older snow, making a general 6-12" of depth across northern slopes of the High Knob Massif 

( from base to summit ).

January 28, 2014
The Slickest Snow
of Winter 2013-14
( At least, To This Point )

January 28, 2014
High Knob Massif
Upper Falls of Little Stony Gorge
Looking Down Upon Increasing ICE

Photograph by Bill Harris - © All Rights Reserved.

Moisture input into extremely cold air developed a low density, very slick snow during daylight hours of January 28 across the northern extent of a 
Deep South tracking low pressure.

A good TEST for slickness: IF snow is harder than typical to walk upon it will likely be harder than typical to DRIVE upon!

January 28, 2014
City of Norton Automated Weather Station

The snow fell with temperatures in the single digits and 10s, with maximums only around 5 degrees atop the High Knob Massif.

January 28, 2014
Long Ridge of Tennessee Valley Divide
Waiting On Better Weather Amid An Arctic Snow

Photograph by Wayne Riner - © All Rights Reserved.

Wayne Riner Photograph Thoughts...
The black cow is due to have a calf soon.  Even though the calf will be black, we are thinking of a name like "Snowflake","Snowball" or "Blizzard".

A general 2" to 5" of snow accumulated during 
this event, varying from just under 2" in lower elevations of the Russell Fork & Levisa Fork basins ( where air was driest ) to 3-5" in Lee, Wise, and Scott counties into portions of the Great Valley of northern Tennessee ( where it was their biggest snow of the season to date in many places ).

High Knob Massif
January 29, 2014 at 12:18 PM
Road Conditions In High Chaparral Community

Photograph by Darlene Fields - © All Rights Reserved.

The heaviest snow fell along and southeast of the Virginia-Kentucky stateline, with NASA visible imagery showing the distribution well with 
clearing skies into January 29.

January 29, 2014
NASA Visible Images

Click consecutively on images for motion

NASA Visible Image At 8:32 AM January 29, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 8:45 AM January 29, 2014

Counties Overlay For Reference
NASA Visible Image At 8:45 AM January 29, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 9:02 AM January 29, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 9:15 AM January 29, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 9:45 AM January 29, 2014

Illustration of High Knob Massif Location
NASA Visible Image At 9:45 AM January 29, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 9:45 AM January 29, 2014

Clearing skies set the stage for the coldest
temps of Winter 2013-14 into January 29-30.

( Reference The Following Section For Details )
Domain of The COLD Places & January 2014 Stats

Wave Clouds Above The High Knob Landform

January 13, 2014 at 1:46 PM

Powell River Basin of High Knob Landform

Development of Incredible Afternoon Waves 

Photograph by Harold L. Jerrell - © All Rights Reserved.

The High Knob Landform

Photographer Harold Jerrell was in the right place, at the right time, to capture absolutely incredible wave clouds during early afternoon hours of January 13, 2014.

SW winds began roaring across upper elevations between sunset and Midnight of January 12, with subsequent downward mixing into the lower terrain around and after sunrise January 13.

ROARing gusts into the Clintwood-Pound area
were coincident with an extensive power outage
caused by winds blowing a tree UP HILL.

An example of mountain waves breaking
on SW air flow ( as documented before ).

January 13, 2014 at 1:38 PM

Adjacent to Cumberland Mountain

Awesome Stacked Lenticular Waves

Photograph by Harold L. Jerrell - © All Rights Reserved.

Mountain waves were present all day long amid the High Knob Landform - Black Mountain corridor on this SW air flow, with visual enhancement of these waves as an apparent disturbance in the wind field propagated northeast along the Appalachians ahead of another batch of chilly rain.

January 13, 2014 at 1:41 PM

High Knob Landform of Upper Tennessee River Basin

Dramatic Waves Amid Airflow-Terrain Interaction

Photograph by Harold L. Jerrell - © All Rights Reserved.

( I also saw waves above Clintwood but they looked nothing like these where low-level terrain interaction was an apparent shaping factor in the High Knob Landform, with formation & reformation noted on visible imagery over the High Knob Massif area ).

January 13, 2014 at 1:41 PM
A Mass Of Flowing Waves Above The Terrain

Photograph by Harold L. Jerrell - © All Rights Reserved.

The atmosphere is a vast fluid such that all aspects of daily weather, as well as longer-term climate, take on wave forms.  Daily changes in temperature, humidity, and wind speed being simple examples of parameters whose changes in space and time trace out waves ( * ).

*When these changes are graphically
plotted the results produce waves.

The nonlinear nature of waves amid the fluid atmosphere and their relationship with the surrounding environment, and each other, is a major reason weather prediction is so difficult.  Especially long-term prediction of future climates!

January 13, 2014
Lee County, Virginia
Upper Tennessee River Basin
Wave Clouds Above The High Knob Landform

Photograph by Harold L. Jerrell - © All Rights Reserved.

If climate models predicting the future are to be trusted with respect to weather conditions 30, 50, or 100 years from now then they should be able to run backwards in time, taking current states of the climatic system as their initial conditions, and reproduce the climate already observed during 1984, 1964, and 1914.  If this can not be reasonably accomplished, should great confidence be placed upon the prediction of climate conditions in 
the year 2044, 2064, and 2114?

Questions & thoughts to be considered on a night ( January 14 ) when high resolution forecast models struggle to predict weather conditions to be experienced within the next 12-24 hours!


NASA Visible Images
At Time of Wave Clouds

In this case these waves were much more 

dramatic looking from below verses above!

NASA Visible Image At 1:15 PM January 13, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 1:32 PM January 13, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 1:45 PM January 13, 2014

Counties Overlay For Reference

NASA Visible Image At 1:45 PM January 13, 2014

January 13, 2014
ECMWF Model Analysis
850 MB Wind Field At 7:00 AM

A low-level jet of strong winds moving northeast along the western flank of the Appalachians aided development of mountain wave clouds during the day, with enhancement in early afternoon as the roaring SW to SSW jet core passed.

January 13, 2014
ECMWF Model Analysis
850 MB Wind Field At 7:00 PM

Breaking Mountain Waves
Strong S-SSE Wind Gusts
January 10-11, 2014

Although not visible, but heard and felt, strong wind gusts were reported during evening hours of January 10 into the overnight of January 11 along the southeastern side of Powell Valley of the 
High Knob Massif in Wise County, Virginia.

January 10, 2014 at 7:00 PM
NAM Model Sounding Analysis Above Wise

Wind gusts of 40-50 mph were measured lee of Clinch Mountain, from Southwest Virginia Community College to Tazewell, Va., as mountain wave breaking zones were activated across
the famed Mountain Empire.

January 10, 2014
ECMWF Model Analysis
850 MB Wind Field At 7:00 PM

While not a classic setting, with a relatively weak stable layer aloft and marginal SSE-SSW wind trajectories, parameters were good enough to stimulate occasional wave breaking and strong gusts as a powerful low-level jet core passed west of the Appalachians to drive a positive mountain torque ( *mountain torque is positive when surface pressures at eastern slopes of the mountains are higher than on western slopes ).

Lee Cyclogenesis
Regional Mountain Torque Estimates Over Rockies

January 10, 2014 at 7 PM
ECMWF Model Analysis
850 MB Temperatures ( Colors )
Surface Pressure Pattern ( Black Isobars )

*A classic formulation of Mountain Torque can be found in Physics of Climate, by José P. Peixoto & Abraham H. Oort, where the summation ( Peast-Pwest ) is used to define mountain torque.
The only way this can be positive is if pressure on the eastern slopes is greater than on the western or windward slopes
( with respect to the Northern Hemisphere ).


NW Flow Mountain Waves
January 18, 2014

Nice mountain waves developed during morning hours of January 18 with visible imagery showing waves rippling downstream from the High Knob Massif to join the Holston-Iron Mountain wave generating zone in northeastern Tennessee.

NASA Visible Image At 8:45 AM January 18, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 9:02 AM January 18, 2014

NASA Visible Image At 9:15 AM January 18, 2014

Counties Overlay For Reference
NASA Visible Image At 9:15 AM January 18, 2014

This section is under construction.  Check back for updates.

Wet Winter Pattern of 2013-14

January 4, 2014

Photograph View Number 2

Upper Falls of Little Stony Creek Gorge

Majestic Beauty Of Winter In High Knob Massif

Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

The High Knob Landform

The winter pattern of 2013-14 has been wet since 
a White Thanksgiving was produced by a major storm system at the end of November 2013.

White Thanksgiving Closes November 2013

City of Norton Water Plant
Days With Measurable Precipitation
Official 8" Diameter NWS Rain Gauge
Hand-Measured Daily at 9:00 AM
Elevation 2342 feet

11-26-2013  0.41"
11-27-2013  1.59"
11-28-2013  0.08"

12-06-2013  0.73"
12-07-2013  1.16"
12-08-2013  0.43"
12-09-2013  1.79"
12-10-2013  0.38"

12-15-2013  0.68"

12-18-2013  0.10"

12-22-2013  1.36"
12-23-2013  0.53"

12-25-2013  0.02"

12-29-2013  1.45"
12-30-2013  0.22"

01-02-2014  0.07"
01-03-2014  0.31"

01-06-2014  0.70"
01-07-2014  0.01"

01-10-2014  0.12"
01-11-2014  0.87"
01-12-2014  0.36"

01-14-2014  0.42"
01-15-2014  0.05"

Total: 13.84"
( November 26, 2013-January 15, 2014 )

Mean Per Week: 1.90"
( During a 7.3 Week Period )

December 2013: 8.85"

January 1-15, 2014: 2.91"

A total of 13.84" of precip have been measured in the official NWS rain gauge at the City of Norton WP since the Thanksgiving Holiday 
( 51 day period or 7.3 weeks ).

January 3, 2014
High Knob Massif
Fluffy Snow Upon Buds & Branches

Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

A missing ingredient amid all this precipitation, even in the High Knob Massif where more than 15.00" fell since Thanksgiving, has been SNOW.

January 3, 2014
Near Sunset In High Knob Massif
Majestic Rime Coated Mountain Forest

Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

Snowfall totals of 25-30" were observed at 
highest elevations in the High Knob Massif during 
the October 23, 2013 to January 7, 2014 period.

January 3, 2014 at 9:20 AM
High Chaparral of High Knob Massif
Time For Another Bird Feeder Fill Up

Photograph by Darlene Fields - © All Rights Reserved.

At least, given such significant precipitation amounts and intervals of intense cold the snow to rain ratio ( and I'm not talking snow density ) has been MUCH below average for this snowy massif.

For example, of the 13.84" of total precipitation measured in the City of Norton since November 26, less than 10% of it has been in the form of snow ( i.e., less than 10% of this 13.84" of water came from snow with only around 12" measured at Norton WP ).

January 3, 2014
High Knob Massif
Where's The Snow Says The Sprout

Photograph by Roddy Addington - © All Rights Reserved.

A sprout like that should be buried in snow by this time, given so much precipitation, but not during Winter 2013-14 when SW Upper Air Flow has ruled the bulk of precipitation events. 

November 26, 2013 to January 10, 2014
500 MB Vector Wind Composite Anomaly

Colder, Snowier Pattern Returns

Taking One At A Time ( January 15-25 Period )

Teleconnection Trends

Updated January 15, 2014

A significant shift from a prolonged -PNA into a potentially prolonged +PNA oscillation signals a major change from recent weeks and sets the stage for longer lasting coldness and multiple snow chances more typical of winter in the Appalachians.
( Until the February pattern can be better resolved )

Note that a -PNA has dominated the Autumn-Early Winter of 2013-14 ( analysis graph above ), with the last significant upward spike of short duration coinciding with the Thanksgiving 2013 winter storm that dropped 5-8" upon the City of Norton-High Knob Massif area.

The previous significant +PNA period, centered around October 25 in 2013, being associated with the first round of accumulating snow of this season in the 
High Knob Massif ( 1-3" snow depths ).

While model snow emphasis shifted from the January 15 system to that of January 17-18, as regards being most significant, snow showers and locally intense, hit-miss squalls remain likely across the mountains during January 15. 

Case in point, The Little Snowman of High Chaparral.

( 1.0" of depth at 3300 feet )
January 15, 2014 at 10:53 AM
High Chaparral Community of High Knob Massif
The Little Snowman Of The High Chaparral

Photograph by Darlene Fields - © All Rights Reserved.

A general 0.5" to 1.0" of snow accumulated
across the area during the AM of January 15.


New Trends Toward Possible Major to Moderate
Stratospheric Warming Event
Of The Displacement Vortex Type
  ( Current Timing - Late January or Early February )

Up to now a 2 wave attack has been the dominant one upon the Polar Vortex ( Wave 2 it is called ) which initially worked to trigger the first two arctic blasts of early January 2014 ( the second one, of course, being the barbaric blast ) by squeezing, or compressing, the vortex such that blobs of bitter air were pushed southward into the USA against an otherwise unfavorable pattern for severe cold ( the blasts were progressive & relatively short-lived ). 

This continued Wave 2 action has now split the vortex 
( partially split ) into two pieces through the depth of the stratosphere between 100 MB & 1 MB, but without having a major disruption to its core ( no major stratospheric warming event or wind reversal has even come close to occurring amid the 60 degrees North and 10 MB sector, but the vortex has been weakening as illustrated by temp rises observed above the North Pole at 30 MB ).

12z January 11, 2014

Polar Vortex Near Bottom of Stratosphere

12z January 11, 2014

Polar Vortex Near Top of Stratosphere

Although temperatures have warmed dramatically at the top of the stratosphere, with a positive temp gradient recently observed between 60 degrees and 90 degrees North latitude, another downward trend in the Mean Temperature above the North Pole at 30 MB reflects the potent strength of this Vortex.

A decrease in zonal mean zonal wind speed also indicates vortex weakening; however, in both cases of core temperature & current westerly wind speed this Polar Vortex remains stronger than climatology despite Wave 2 action beating on it like a drum!

This is where a forecast Wave 1 ramp up during the next 5-10+ days enters the picture via what appears to be a tropospheric coupling between Aleutian Low pressure and Siberian High pressure.

Wave 1 At 12z January 19, 2014
European Model Wave 1 Forecast Day 7

If this occurs as currently forecast it will represent a major hemispheric change from mean conditions observed during Autumn 2013-early Winter 2014.

Note that the Autumn of 2013, from September-October through November, was dominated by a weaker than average Siberian High ( more blue color, or low pressure, where red color or high pressure should have been ) and a weaker than average Aleutian Low ( the Aleutian Low being essentially non-existent in the anomaly mean from late October through much of December ).

Northern Hemisphere
October 25 to December 25, 2013
500 MB Geopotential Height Composite Anomalies

Strong positive height anomalies dominated the Northern Pacific, in place of an Aleutian Low, during the October 25-December 25 period 
( generating Wave 2 forcing but little Wave 1 ).

While there are wave and ozone induced warming events amid the stratosphere at various times during any given winter season, here the focus is upon the type of high amplitude wave induced warming that can breach the surf zone of the Polar Vortex and do major structural damage to its core via changes in both internal temp and vector winds ( changes in speed + direction ).

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